So it’s been more than a month and the US-Iran war still rages on. Precisely, 33 days.
When it all started, everyone thought it would be short. The belief was reinforced when the US President Donald Trump himself called it a brief excursion during one of his press briefings. The word ‘excursion’ in itself implies as short trip. A quick in-and-out. Controlled chaos. But nothing like that happened.
The US Iran war, now 33 days in, continues not because there was no objective, but because the core assumption behind it failed.
The dominant argument floating around is that the war continues because the US entered it without a clear objective. That may sound comforting to some since it suggests confusion and no intent.
But I think that argument is wrong.
The Assumption That Failed
The US went into the war with a clear assumption. A dangerously simplistic one, but clear nonetheless: we take out Iran’s Supreme Leader and the regime will collapse.
The ‘oppressed people’ of Iran will come out on the streets and there will be an internal upheaval. Maybe a power vacuum. Maybe even a reshaped Iran that aligns better with Western interests.
This regime change assumption in Iran has collapsed, much to both US and Israel’s consternation.
Instead, what we have seen over these 33 days of the US Iran war is a spectacle of shifting goalposts and incoherent, bizarre messaging. Donald Trump has been exactly what he has always been: erratic, reactive and deeply inconsistent.
One day it’s regime change. The next, it’s about crippling ballistic missile capabilities. Then it escalates to targeting civilian infrastructure. Then suddenly, there’s a pause. Five days. Then ten. Then back to threats of obliteration.
At one point, he spoke about “opening” the Strait of Hormuz, a route that was already open before this conflict began. And then, just as quickly, the rhetoric swung back to decimating Iran.
There is no throughline. No strategic clarity.
Alongside Trump, Pete Hegseth has emerged as the loudest tub-thumper of aggression. His tone is performative. Almost theatrical as if he is auditioning for a role in a potboiler movie. If you have tuned into his press briefings, you’d agree that he sounds less like a policymaker and more like someone consumed with the theatre of war.
Reports have also surfaced about Hegseth taking positions in defence stocks before the war began.
And then comes the absurdity that borders on parody. Trump suggesting that Arab states should compensate the US for the war. Let that sink in. The GCC countries are literally getting bombed because of your aggression and the expectation is that they should bankroll your war. Again, that’s typical Trump.
No Lessons Learnt
Wars have a way of exposing deeper patterns. The longer the US Iran war drags on, the more it begins to resemble a familiar script. Like The US enters a conflict with confidence bordering on arrogance, underestimating the complexity on the ground and then finds itself trapped in a slow-moving quagmire.
Iraq should have been the lesson. The Iraq war cost the US roughly $2 trillion and left behind a region more unstable than before. Yet here we are again.
And if you zoom out further, this is not the first time the US is flirting with the idea of a possible ground invasion. In the late 1980s, during the tail end of the Iran-Iraq conflict, Reagan administration had already drawn up similar plans. The US had deployed a massive naval armada in the region, preparing for direct confrontation with Iran. Kharg Island, which is in news, was also in the crosshairs back then.
Long story short – the playbook exists. It’s just being recycled, with new actors at the helm, but likely, with the same assumptions and the blind spots.
This Is What a Trap Looks Like
There’s also a more personal dimension to this. Trump rose to power promising to keep America out of foreign entanglements. That there will be no more endless wars and no more policing the world. That promise was central to his electoral appeal.
Now, he finds himself deep inside a conflict with no clear exit.
In his latest address, Trump claimed the war would end in 2-3 weeks. It sounds familiar because we have heard versions of this before. Reality, however, tends to be complicated. This war could drag on for months, possibly longer. And the deeper it goes, the harder it becomes to step back without appearing weak.
That’s the trap.
The Nobel Peace Prize rejection has clearly gotten under Trump’s skin. I’d go so far as to say it flipped a switch in his head. Since then, he’s been completely unhinged.
How this war ends is anyone’s guess, but one thing feels certain already: Trump will go down in US history as one of the most erratic and widely criticized presidents.
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